Türkiye-Russia Relations: Black Sea Grain Deal and Gas Hub Discussions as Ankara Treads Neutral Path Amidst Ukraine Conflict

Since Russia started its invasion of Ukraine a year and a half ago, Ankara has not picked a side to support staunchly. Türkiye had positive relations with both before the war, kept itself from being associated with either one, and took the role of a mediator. The intermediary role of Türkiye provided relief to the world without disturbing relations with either of the parties. Moscow’s investments in Türkiye go on healthy while Kyiv still imports materiel.

03/08/2023 15:00 Güncelleme: 05/05/2024 18:37

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan spoke on the phone on the 2nd of August.

The central topic of discussion was the Black Sea Grain Initiative, a deal signed between Türkiye, Ukraine, Russia, and the United Nations.

The agreement’s purpose is to keep the food supply intact and safe from the effects of war. The shortage of supply means a crisis for the world, most notably for African countries.

The deal had come into effect last summer when it was signed. It lasted only a year until Russia pulled out of the contract.

President Erdoğan urged the recovery of the deal as its absence drove the prices up by 15 percent in the last fortnight.

President Erdoğan remarked that food prices were down around 23 percent when the initiative he dubbed the “Bridge of Peace” was in effect, as carried by the Directorate of Communications.

According to Kremlin, Moscow withdrew from the agreement because the Western states did not fulfill their commitments regarding Russia in the concord.

Russian officials made it clear multiple times that Moscow was ready to return to the agreement once this condition was met.

Though this move puts food security in danger, the Russian supply to African countries persists free of charge, Putin told at the Russian-African Forum last week.

Another topic was bilateral relations. President Erdoğan thanked his counterpart for the two amphibious firefighting aircraft sent by Russia for Turkey's fight against wildfires.

The leaders also discussed the development of bilateral trade and economic relations, the realization of strategic joint projects in the energy field, and continued cooperation in tourism.

During the phone call, both sides noted with satisfaction that the trade volume between their countries almost doubled in 2022.

Vladimir Putin will visit Türkiye as per the agreement over the phone.

GAS HUB NO MORE: ELECTRONIC TRADING PLATFORM

Toward the end of 2022, the Russian leader said that Moscow planned to turn Türkiye into a gas hub. President Erdoğan had confirmed this in a party caucus.

Vladimir Putin expanded on the details of this plan, specifying that the project did not involve storing natural gas in Türkiye.

Speaking to journalists in St. Petersburg, Putin said, “I want to make it clear that this is not oil or an oil storage facility: This is gas. Both we and our Turkish friends know this. We are talking about creating an electronic trading platform.”

It would be convenient to organize an electronic trading platform in Türkiye because it had become a transit country to Europe, Putin noted.

Aydın Sezer, a Russia expert, spoke to VOA Turkish. He commented on this issue, claiming that this is not what Ankara wants.

Sezer said this would effectively mean yielding control of the system to Moscow.

“This has nothing to do with being a natural gas hub. It is neither butter nor fly. One should definitely not accept this proposal because Russia will be controlling this system,” he remarked.

“Being a hub country is only possible by being a playmaker or a market regulator. For this, you will have your natural gas lines and simultaneously liberalize and deregulate the natural gas market,” he added.

Sezer also said Türkiye had to cut off TANAP and Turkish Stream to become a gas hub rather than a carrier.

According to an article by Vicken Chetaryan, Türkiye and Russia have a symbiotic relationship in the energy sector.

“Türkiye and Russia are interdependent on energy: Türkiye depends on Russia as a source of natural gas, while Russia depends on Türkiye as a port for its energy exports,” writes Chetaryan.

Türkiye has a centuries-old custom in its international relations that advocates for balance. Ankara’s strategy has been similar in all cases where it could keep neutrality.

Türkiye has had favorable bilateral relations with Russia in the last few years. The two countries occupy a massive part of each other’s total trade volume.

Relations sometimes tense up, but mutual interests pave the way to mend the tension. In the case of the invasion of Ukraine, Ankara did not take a side and kept its relations intact with both sides.

This move did not hurt Türkiye-Russia ties. The West tried to turn Moscow into a pariah, a move that backfired because of countries like Türkiye and China.

In conclusion, Ankara-Moscow links keep on the positive side with an upward curve. Türkiye’s foreign policy strategy helps both Ukraine and Russia get what they require without tampering with the partnerships with Ankara.

Türkiye Vladimir Vladimiroviç Putin Rusya Federasyonu Recep Tayyip Erdoğan